The findings are in contrast to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2015 Gas Statement of Opportunities, which EnergyQuest says are unrealistic and ignore public and industry concerns about the expected tightening supply of gas for domestic use.
EnergyQuest Chief Executive Dr Graeme Bethune pointed to a number of shortcomings in the AEMO analysis, with estimates for gas demand by Queensland’s LNG projects being too low and production estimates from the Cooper Basin too high.
Dr Bethune added that the AEMO significantly under-estimates gas reserve risk, relying too heavily on undemonstrated fields.
“Federal and State governments have internationally respected geoscience agencies, but there is little sign that this expertise has been called upon by AEMO in preparing the latest GSOO,”? Dr Bethune said.
“Correcting for these factors changes the east coast gas demand and supply balance from AEMO’s meagre surplus of 22 PJ in 2019, to a 133 PJ shortfall in that year. A significant short-term supply gap has re-emerged, which increases to over 200 PJ per annum early next decade.”?
Dr Bethune said AEMO’s erroneous conclusions would do little more than act as a barrier to further east coast gas development in New South Wales and onshore Victoria.