The GSOO indicates that there will be sufficient gas reserves to meet domestic as well as LNG export demand across all scenarios to 2030, at which point remaining gas reserves are estimated to be between 35,000-78,000 petajoules (PJ).
Annual domestic gas consumption is forecast to increase in all regions at an average annual growth rate ranging between 3.1-4.9 per cent, from a baseline of approximately 650 PJ/a in 2010.
The 2010 GSOO covers the gas markets in South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland. Western Australia and the Northern Territory are not participating jurisdictions under the National Gas Rules and as such are not included in the report.
Recognising the increasing importance of gas in electricity generation, the 2010 GSOO shares modelling scenarios with the National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), which was simultaneously released by Federal Minister for Resources and Energy Martin Ferguson.
Under a medium growth scenario, says the report, gas for electricity generation is forecast to increase fivefold, this growth mainly coming from Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.
Notably, the GSOO states that an increasing amount of gas-powered generation is forecast to be combined-cycle gas turbine technology operating at baseload, leading to an overall increase in demand for gas for power generation from approximately 200 PJ/a to over 1,000 PJ/a in a medium growth scenario.
The full report can be found at AEMO’s website.